A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
